Painters, construction and maintenance

AI Overlap Index
30.2 / 100
Selectively Exposed

Physical, social, or oversight-heavy work that AI augments rather than replaces.

SOC 47-2141 · Construction And Extraction

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$48,660/yr
Hourly
$23/hr
Jobs 2024
342,200
Projected 2034
355,200
10-yr outlook
+4% · As fast as average
Employment change
13,000
Entry education
No formal educational credential
SOC code
47-2141

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
17.4
contribution to AOI: 10.4
Automation Potential weight 10%
10.0
contribution to AOI: 1.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
45.0
contribution to AOI: 6.8
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
80.0
contribution to AOI: 12.0

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
35.6
mult 1.18x
Mid
30.2
mult 1.00x
Senior
25.7
mult 0.85x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

10 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Supporting t7

Calculate area size and determine amount of paint needed

AI can accurately calculate areas from measurements or images and determine paint quantities using standard formulas; requires minimal physical presence and involves straightforward mathematical computation that current AI handles well.

BLS evidence: Calculate the size of the area to be painted and the amount of paint needed for the area.

72
automation
Important t8

Select appropriate tools based on surface type and paint characteristics

AI can suggest appropriate tools based on documented surface types and paint specifications, but final selection requires tactile assessment of actual conditions, experience-based judgment about site-specific factors, and physical verification that keeps humans load-bearing.

BLS evidence: For each job, painters must choose the correct tool, such as a roller, power sprayer, or brush.

45
automation
Important t9

Perform quality control to meet technical specifications and ensure proper material use

AI can check some specifications against standards and flag potential issues, but quality control requires visual inspection of finish quality, tactile assessment of surface preparation, and judgment calls about acceptability that demand human expertise in variable field conditions.

BLS evidence: Industrial and commercial painters also must perform quality control and quality assurance to ensure that they find mistakes, meet technical specifications, and use materials appropriately.

35
automation
Supporting t10

Contain work areas to prevent hazardous material contamination

Requires physical setup of containment barriers, real-time monitoring of work area conditions, adaptation to site-specific hazards, and safety-critical decision-making in unpredictable environments that AI-robotics cannot reliably manage.

BLS evidence: Industrial painters must contain the area in which they are working to prevent hazardous materials from contaminating the environment and exposing the public to risks.

12
automation
Important t5

Protect floors, furniture, and trim by covering surfaces with drop cloths and tape

Involves physical manipulation of materials across irregular spaces, judgment about coverage extent based on visual inspection of the specific site, and manual dexterity in confined areas that robotics cannot handle across varied construction environments.

BLS evidence: Protect floors, furniture, and trim by covering surfaces with drop cloths and tarps and securing with tape.

10
automation
Important t4

Fill holes and cracks with putty or plaster

Requires fine motor skills to apply putty/plaster smoothly, tactile sensing to achieve proper fill depth and texture, and physical manipulation in diverse orientations that current AI-robotics systems cannot execute reliably.

BLS evidence: Fill holes and cracks with putty or plaster.

9
automation
Core t1

Apply paint, coatings, or finishes using brushes, rollers, or sprayers

Requires fine motor control, real-time adaptation to surface irregularities, physical presence in unpredictable construction environments, and dexterity that current robotics cannot match at scale across varied job sites.

BLS evidence: Painters apply paint, stain, and coatings to walls and ceilings, buildings, large machinery and equipment, and bridges and other structures.

8
automation
Important t3

Apply primers or sealers to ensure paint adhesion to surfaces

Similar to paint application but slightly more standardized; still requires physical presence, precise application technique, and real-time judgment about coverage in variable construction settings beyond current robotic capabilities.

BLS evidence: Apply primers or sealers so the paint will stick to the surface.

7
automation
Core t2

Prepare surfaces by scraping, wire brushing, or sanding to a smooth finish

Demands physical manipulation of tools in non-standardized environments, tactile feedback to assess surface smoothness, and manual dexterity in confined or awkward positions that AI-controlled robotics cannot reliably perform.

BLS evidence: Prepare surfaces by removing outlet and switch covers and by scraping, wire brushing, or sanding to a smooth finish.

6
automation
Important t6

Install scaffolding and raise ladders for access to work areas

Requires heavy physical labor, spatial reasoning in unpredictable job sites, safety-critical decision-making about structural stability, and coordination in dynamic environments—all beyond current AI-robotics capabilities for construction settings.

BLS evidence: Install scaffolding and raise ladders.

5
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

🔒

Unlock with Jobpocalypse Pro

Career pivot paths, wage impact analysis, AI tool recommendations, and task heatmaps for every occupation. $9/month, cancel anytime.

See plans

or

Downloadable PDF for this occupation only. One-time payment, yours forever.

◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight

External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
10
karpathy 1/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
45
outlook: As fast as average
  • BLS projected outlook: As fast as average (4%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
80
ed: No formal educational credential
  • BLS typical entry-level education: No formal educational credential
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Construction And Extraction

closest AOI neighbors in the same category