Carpenters

AI Overlap Index
29.3 / 100
Insulated

Embodied skill, frontline presence, or deep institutional judgment. Most insulated.

SOC 47-2031 · Construction And Extraction

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$59,310/yr
Hourly
$29/hr
Jobs 2024
959,000
Projected 2034
1,002,100
10-yr outlook
+4% · As fast as average
Employment change
43,100
Entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
SOC code
47-2031

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
16.8
contribution to AOI: 10.1
Automation Potential weight 10%
20.0
contribution to AOI: 2.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
45.0
contribution to AOI: 6.8
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
70.0
contribution to AOI: 10.5

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
34.6
mult 1.18x
Mid
29.3
mult 1.00x
Senior
24.9
mult 0.85x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

10 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Supporting t10

Use smart phones, tablets, and electronic devices for planning and calculations

AI excels at calculations, material estimation, code lookups, and plan interpretation on digital devices; current AI assistants can handle most planning computations and information retrieval, with carpenters primarily validating outputs and inputting site-specific parameters.

BLS evidence: The page notes 'Carpenters may also use smart phones, tablets, and other personal electronic devices to assist with planning, drafting, or other calculations.'

72
automation
Important t4

Follow blueprints and building plans to meet the needs of clients

AI can interpret blueprints, flag conflicts, and suggest material lists, but translating plans to physical reality requires on-site judgment about structural conditions, code compliance in context, and client communication that keeps humans load-bearing.

BLS evidence: The duties section begins with 'Follow blueprints and building plans to meet the needs of clients' as a fundamental carpenter responsibility.

35
automation
Supporting t9

Instruct and direct laborers and other construction helpers

AI can assist with scheduling and task assignment, but directing laborers requires real-time coordination on active job sites, safety monitoring in physical environments, adapting to changing conditions, and interpersonal management that keeps humans central.

BLS evidence: The duties section lists 'Instruct and direct laborers and other construction helpers' as a carpenter responsibility.

25
automation
Important t5

Inspect and replace damaged framework or other structures and fixtures

Inspection requires physical access to crawl spaces and heights, tactile assessment of structural integrity, and diagnosis of damage causes in unpredictable conditions; replacement involves the same physical manipulation challenges as new construction.

BLS evidence: The duties section includes 'Inspect and replace damaged framework or other structures and fixtures' as a regular carpenter task.

15
automation
Important t8

Fasten materials with nails, screws, staples, and adhesives

Involves selecting appropriate fasteners based on material and load, physical manipulation of tools in confined spaces, ensuring proper depth and angle, and working around obstacles—fine motor tasks in variable environments that exceed robotic capabilities.

BLS evidence: The page states 'Carpenters fasten materials with nails, screws, staples, and adhesives and check their work to ensure that it is correct.'

13
automation
Core t2

Measure, cut, and shape wood, plastic, and other materials

Demands fine motor control for cutting tools, physical handling of materials in varying conditions, tactile feedback for material properties, and spatial reasoning in three-dimensional physical space that AI-controlled robotics cannot reliably execute in typical job sites.

BLS evidence: The duties section states carpenters 'Measure, cut, and shape wood, plastic, and other materials' and notes they use tape measures or laser measures on nearly every project.

12
automation
Important t7

Install wooden concrete forms for cement footings or pillars

Requires physical assembly of forms in excavated areas with mud and uneven surfaces, precise alignment for structural requirements, and bracing against concrete pressure—tasks demanding environmental adaptability and physical manipulation current systems cannot achieve.

BLS evidence: The page describes carpenters in production or commercial work 'installing wooden concrete forms for cement footings or pillars.'

11
automation
Core t3

Install structures and fixtures, such as windows and molding

Requires precise physical installation in non-standardized openings, leveling and shimming based on tactile feedback, working in awkward positions, and adapting to building irregularities that exceed current robotic dexterity and environmental adaptability.

BLS evidence: The duties section lists 'Install structures and fixtures, such as windows and molding' as a primary carpenter task.

10
automation
Important t6

Erect shoring and scaffolding for buildings

Involves heavy lifting, working at heights in outdoor conditions, securing structures to uneven ground, and ensuring stability under dynamic loads—all requiring physical strength, balance, and environmental adaptation beyond current robotics.

BLS evidence: The page states that carpenters working on tall buildings or bridges 'also erect shoring and scaffolding for buildings.'

9
automation
Core t1

Construct and install building frameworks, including walls, floors, and doorframes

Requires physical manipulation of heavy materials in unpredictable construction environments, precise fitting in non-standardized spaces, and real-time problem-solving for structural issues that current robotics cannot handle at construction sites.

BLS evidence: The duties section explicitly lists 'Construct and install building frameworks, including walls, floors, and doorframes' as a primary task.

8
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

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External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
20
karpathy 2/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
45
outlook: As fast as average
  • BLS projected outlook: As fast as average (4%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
70
ed: High school diploma or equivalent
  • BLS typical entry-level education: High school diploma or equivalent
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Construction And Extraction

closest AOI neighbors in the same category