Sheet metal workers

AI Overlap Index
30.8 / 100
Selectively Exposed

Physical, social, or oversight-heavy work that AI augments rather than replaces.

SOC 47-2211 · Construction And Extraction

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$60,850/yr
Hourly
$29/hr
Jobs 2024
127,000
Projected 2034
130,100
10-yr outlook
+2% · Slower than average
Employment change
3,100
Entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
SOC code
47-2211

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
15.1
contribution to AOI: 9.1
Automation Potential weight 10%
30.0
contribution to AOI: 3.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
55.0
contribution to AOI: 8.2
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
70.0
contribution to AOI: 10.5

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
36.3
mult 1.18x
Mid
30.8
mult 1.00x
Senior
26.2
mult 0.85x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

11 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Important t6

Select appropriate types of sheet metal according to building or design plans

AI can parse building plans and material specifications to recommend appropriate sheet metal types based on structural requirements, corrosion resistance, and cost. However, human judgment remains important for site-specific conditions and supplier availability.

BLS evidence: Workers must 'Select types of sheet metal according to building or design plans' as listed in the duties section.

48
automation
Supporting t10

Operate automated machinery and computer-controlled fabrication equipment

CNC and automated fabrication equipment already handles much of the execution, but human operators load materials, program parameters for custom jobs, monitor quality, and troubleshoot. AI can assist with programming but humans remain essential for physical setup and oversight.

BLS evidence: Workers 'operating tools and equipment' including 'automated machinery, such as computer-controlled saws, lasers, shears, and presses' in manufacturing settings.

35
automation
Supporting t11

Adjust sheet metal ducts to achieve proper airflow and system balance

Requires physically accessing installed ductwork, making mechanical adjustments with tools, and testing airflow in situ. While AI could model optimal configurations, the physical manipulation and real-world testing in building environments requires human presence and dexterity.

BLS evidence: Testing and balancing specialists 'ensure that HVAC systems heat and cool rooms properly by adjusting sheet metal ducts to achieve proper airflow.'

16
automation
Core t2

Fabricate sheet metal parts using cutting, bending, and fastening techniques

Demands fine motor control for cutting, bending, and fastening physical metal in unpredictable orientations and environments. Current robotics lack the dexterity and adaptability for the variety of fabrication tasks across job sites.

BLS evidence: Workers 'make precision sheet metal parts' and use 'computer-controlled saws, lasers, shears, and presses, which measure, cut, bend, and fasten pieces of sheet metal.'

15
automation
Important t7

Drill holes in metal for screws, bolts, and rivets

Requires positioning drill on physical metal pieces in various orientations, applying appropriate pressure, and ensuring hole placement accuracy. Demands hand-tool dexterity and spatial reasoning in unstructured environments beyond current AI+robotics.

BLS evidence: The duties section lists 'Drill holes in metal for screws, bolts, and rivets' as a standard task.

14
automation
Core t1

Measure and mark dimensions and reference lines on metal sheets

Requires physical presence to handle metal sheets in variable job site conditions, plus hand-eye coordination to mark accurately on actual materials. AI cannot manipulate physical objects or perceive 3D workspace geometry reliably.

BLS evidence: The duties section lists 'Measure and mark dimensions and reference lines on metal sheets' as a primary task.

12
automation
Important t9

Repair and clean ventilation systems to improve energy efficiency

Requires accessing ventilation systems in crawl spaces or ceilings, physically cleaning components, diagnosing mechanical issues through inspection, and performing repairs with hand tools. Demands physical presence and manipulation in confined, variable spaces.

BLS evidence: Maintenance sheet metal workers 'repair and clean ventilation systems so the systems use less energy' by removing dust and fixing leaks.

11
automation
Important t5

Fasten seams and joints by welding, bolting, riveting, or soldering

Welding, bolting, riveting, and soldering require precise hand-tool control in variable positions and environments, plus real-time quality assessment of joint integrity. Robotic welding exists only in highly controlled factory settings, not construction sites.

BLS evidence: The duties section explicitly states workers 'Fasten seams or joints by welding, bolting, riveting, or soldering.'

10
automation
Core t3

Install heating, ventilation, and air conditioning ducts and systems

Requires navigating complex building interiors, working in confined spaces, lifting and positioning heavy ductwork, and making real-time adjustments to fit irregular spaces. Far beyond current AI+robotics capabilities for unstructured construction environments.

BLS evidence: Installation sheet metal workers 'put in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) ducts' and this is a primary function of the occupation.

8
automation
Important t8

Maneuver and anchor large sheet metal parts with supportive frameworks

Involves coordinating with team members to lift and position heavy metal components, securing them to building structures in non-standardized configurations. Requires physical strength, spatial coordination, and real-time human collaboration in unpredictable settings.

BLS evidence: Workers 'Maneuver and anchor large sheet metal parts' and 'Install metal sheets with supportive frameworks' as stated in duties.

7
automation
Important t4

Install metal roofs, siding, gutters, and other sheet metal products

Involves working at heights on roofs, handling large metal panels in outdoor weather conditions, and adapting installation to building irregularities. Requires physical strength, balance, and environmental adaptability that AI+robotics cannot achieve.

BLS evidence: Workers 'install other sheet metal products, such as metal roofs, siding, and gutters' on construction and renovation projects.

6
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

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External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
30
karpathy 3/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
55
outlook: Slower than average
  • BLS projected outlook: Slower than average (2%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
70
ed: High school diploma or equivalent
  • BLS typical entry-level education: High school diploma or equivalent
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Construction And Extraction

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