High school teachers

AI Overlap Index
44.5 / 100
Partially Exposed

Clear pressure on routine tasks. Composition of the role will shift within the decade.

SOC 25-2031 · Education Training And Library

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$64,580/yr
Hourly
$31/hr
Jobs 2024
1,094,500
Projected 2034
1,076,700
10-yr outlook
-2% · Decline
Employment change
-17,800
Entry education
Bachelor's degree
SOC code
25-2031

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
42.5
contribution to AOI: 25.5
Automation Potential weight 10%
70.0
contribution to AOI: 7.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
45.0
contribution to AOI: 6.8
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
35.0
contribution to AOI: 5.2

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
51.2
mult 1.15x
Mid
44.5
mult 1.00x
Senior
36.5
mult 0.82x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

11 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Important t3

Grade students' assignments and exams

AI can already grade multiple-choice, short-answer, and increasingly even essay responses with reliability approaching human graders, particularly for standardized rubrics. Human review is still needed for edge cases and maintaining student trust, but the labor content has demonstrably shrunk where adopted.

BLS evidence: Teachers 'grade students' assignments and exams' and 'often spend time in the evenings and on weekends grading papers.'

72
automation
Core t2

Assess students' abilities, strengths, and weaknesses

AI can analyze student work patterns, test results, and learning analytics to identify strengths and weaknesses with increasing accuracy, but holistic assessment of non-academic factors (motivation, home challenges, social dynamics) and the relational trust needed for accurate diagnosis still require substantial human involvement.

BLS evidence: The duties section explicitly lists 'assess students' abilities, strengths, and weaknesses' as a primary responsibility.

58
automation
Important t7

Prepare students for standardized tests required by the state

AI can generate practice questions, identify knowledge gaps from formative assessments, and provide targeted review materials aligned to test standards. However, teaching test-taking strategies, managing student anxiety, and motivating sustained preparation effort require human coaching, making this a strong AI-assist scenario.

BLS evidence: The duties section explicitly includes 'prepare students for standardized tests required by the state.'

55
automation
Important t6

Communicate with parents about students' progress

AI can draft progress reports, summarize grade trends, and flag concerns from data, but parent communication involves navigating emotions, building trust, collaborative problem-solving, and sometimes delivering difficult news in culturally sensitive ways that require human judgment, though AI assistance is increasingly valuable.

BLS evidence: Teachers 'communicate with parents about students' progress' and 'may use text-messaging applications to communicate about students' assignments and upcoming events.'

48
automation
Core t1

Plan lessons and instruct students in specialized subject areas

AI can generate lesson plans and instructional content aligned to standards, but the real-time classroom delivery—reading student engagement, adjusting pace, managing disruptions, building rapport—requires human presence and judgment that AI cannot replicate in a physical classroom setting.

BLS evidence: High school teachers typically 'plan lessons and instruct their students in the subject they teach' and 'usually specialize in one area' such as math, science, history, art, music, or physical education.

42
automation
Important t4

Adapt lessons to accommodate different class sizes and student ability levels

AI can suggest differentiated materials and scaffolding strategies based on student data, but the real-time adaptation during instruction—recognizing confusion in faces, adjusting explanations on the fly, managing mixed-ability group dynamics—requires situated human judgment that AI cannot execute in physical classrooms.

BLS evidence: Teachers 'adapt lessons to changes in class size' and 'need to adapt their lessons based on students' skills' when students are divided by abilities.

38
automation
Important t5

Work with individual students to challenge them and improve their abilities

AI tutoring systems can provide personalized practice and hints, but the one-on-one coaching relationship—diagnosing motivational blocks, building confidence, knowing when to push versus support, reading non-verbal cues—requires human emotional intelligence and relational continuity that AI cannot substitute at this level.

BLS evidence: The duties section states teachers 'work with individual students to challenge them and to improve their abilities.'

35
automation
Supporting t10

Meet with other teachers and staff for coordination and planning

AI can schedule meetings, summarize action items, and track shared goals, but collaborative planning involves negotiating competing priorities, building collegial relationships, creative problem-solving in context-specific situations, and institutional knowledge sharing that require human interaction and trust-building.

BLS evidence: Outside of instructional time, teachers 'meet with other teachers and staff' and 'may meet with parents, students, and other teachers before and after school.'

32
automation
Important t8

Develop and enforce classroom rules and administrative policies

Developing rules requires understanding school culture and student developmental needs, which AI can inform but not lead. Enforcing rules in real-time—reading situations, de-escalating conflicts, applying consequences with context and fairness—requires physical presence and nuanced human authority that AI cannot exercise.

BLS evidence: Teachers 'develop and enforce classroom rules and administrative policies' as listed in their typical duties.

22
automation
Supporting t11

Advise extracurricular activities such as sports teams or academic clubs

Advising extracurriculars requires physical presence at practices/events, mentoring student leaders through interpersonal conflicts, making real-time safety and strategy decisions, and building the sustained relationships that make extracurriculars educationally valuable—all beyond current AI capabilities.

BLS evidence: Some high school teachers 'take on additional responsibilities, such as coaching sports or advising academic clubs, activities that frequently take place before or after school.'

12
automation
Supporting t9

Supervise students outside of the classroom during non-instructional time

Supervising hallways, cafeterias, and outdoor spaces requires physical presence, rapid threat assessment, intervention in physical altercations, and authority projection that AI+robotics cannot provide in unpredictable school environments with liability and safety requirements.

BLS evidence: Teachers 'supervise students outside of the classroom—for example, during lunchtime or detention.'

8
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

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External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
70
karpathy 7/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
45
outlook: Decline
  • BLS projected outlook: Decline (-2%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
35
ed: Bachelor's degree
  • BLS typical entry-level education: Bachelor's degree
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

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