Physician assistants

AI Overlap Index
37.1 / 100
Selectively Exposed

Physical, social, or oversight-heavy work that AI augments rather than replaces.

SOC 29-1071 · Healthcare

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$133,260/yr
Hourly
$64/hr
Jobs 2024
162,700
Projected 2034
195,800
10-yr outlook
+20% · Much faster than average
Employment change
33,200
Entry education
Master's degree
SOC code
29-1071

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
39.8
contribution to AOI: 23.9
Automation Potential weight 10%
50.0
contribution to AOI: 5.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
30.0
contribution to AOI: 4.5
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
25.0
contribution to AOI: 3.8

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
40.8
mult 1.10x
Mid
37.1
mult 1.00x
Senior
30.4
mult 0.82x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

10 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Supporting t10

Research the latest treatments to ensure quality of patient care

AI excels at literature search, synthesizing recent studies, and identifying relevant treatment updates from vast medical databases. Systems can already monitor journals, extract key findings, and summarize evidence-based recommendations with minimal human involvement beyond selecting which summaries to review.

BLS evidence: The final duty listed is 'Research the latest treatments to ensure quality of patient care.'

82
automation
Supporting t9

Assess and record patients' progress during treatment

Recording patient progress involves documenting objective measurements, symptoms, and treatment responses—largely structured data entry and pattern recognition. AI can auto-generate progress notes from vitals, labs, and brief inputs, with human review for accuracy, substantially reducing labor content.

BLS evidence: The duties list includes 'Assess and record a patient's progress' as a routine documentation task.

75
automation
Important t4

Order and interpret diagnostic tests such as x-rays or blood tests

AI systems already interpret x-rays, CT scans, and lab values at or above human performance in many contexts. Ordering tests based on clinical presentation can be protocol-driven and AI-assisted. The main human role is accountability and handling edge cases, making this highly automatable with light oversight.

BLS evidence: The duties list states 'Order and interpret diagnostic tests, such as x rays or blood tests.'

72
automation
Important t6

Obtain and review patients' medical histories

AI can extract, summarize, and flag relevant information from electronic health records efficiently. Reviewing histories is largely pattern recognition and information synthesis, tasks where AI excels. Human review is needed mainly for clarifying ambiguities and patient communication, not the core review work.

BLS evidence: The first duty listed is 'Obtain and review patients' medical histories.'

68
automation
Important t5

Prescribe medication to patients as appropriate for their condition

AI can recommend evidence-based prescriptions based on diagnosis, patient factors, and drug interactions with high accuracy. However, prescribing carries legal liability, requires nuanced patient-specific judgment about adherence and preferences, and involves regulatory constraints that keep humans in the loop for final decisions.

BLS evidence: The duties section explicitly includes 'Prescribe medication' as a physician assistant responsibility.

55
automation
Core t2

Diagnose patients' injuries or illnesses based on examination and test results

AI diagnostic systems can analyze test results and suggest differential diagnoses with high accuracy, but clinical diagnosis requires integrating physical exam findings, patient history, and contextual factors with high-stakes accountability that currently requires physician oversight. AI assists substantially but doesn't replace the clinician.

BLS evidence: The duties explicitly list 'Diagnose a patient's injury or illness' as a key responsibility.

48
automation
Important t7

Educate and counsel patients and their families on treatment and self-care

Patient education requires adapting explanations to individual health literacy, cultural context, and emotional state, plus building trust through empathetic communication. AI can generate educational content but cannot yet replicate the interpersonal dynamics and real-time adaptation that make counseling effective.

BLS evidence: The duties include 'Educate and counsel patients and their families on a variety of issues, such as treatment and self-care for asthma.'

32
automation
Core t1

Examine patients to assess their medical condition

Physical examination requires hands-on palpation, auscultation with a stethoscope, visual inspection of physical findings, and real-time clinical judgment in an unpredictable patient interaction. AI lacks the physical embodiment and tactile sensing capabilities needed for competent examination.

BLS evidence: The duties section states 'Examine patients' as a primary task, and the opening summary identifies 'examine, diagnose, and treat patients' as the core work.

12
automation
Important t8

Provide surgical care including closing incisions and pre- and post-operative care

Surgical procedures including wound closure require precise manual dexterity, real-time adaptation to tissue characteristics and bleeding, and handling of unexpected intraoperative findings. Surgical robotics exist but require human operators; autonomous surgical AI is far from clinical deployment.

BLS evidence: The page states 'a physician assistant working in surgery may close incisions and provide care before, during, and after an operation.'

10
automation
Core t3

Provide medical treatment such as setting broken bones, stitching wounds, and administering immunizations

Setting bones requires precise manual manipulation and tactile feedback, suturing demands fine motor control in varied tissue conditions, and administering injections involves physical patient interaction. Current robotics cannot reliably perform these procedures across diverse patient presentations and clinical settings.

BLS evidence: The duties section specifies 'Provide treatment, such as setting broken bones, stitching wounds, and immunizing patients.'

8
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

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External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
50
karpathy 5/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
30
outlook: Much faster than average
  • BLS projected outlook: Much faster than average (20%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
25
ed: Master's degree
  • BLS typical entry-level education: Master's degree
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Healthcare

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