Machinists and tool and die makers

AI Overlap Index
36.6 / 100
Selectively Exposed

Physical, social, or oversight-heavy work that AI augments rather than replaces.

SOC · Production

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$57,700/yr
Hourly
$28/hr
Jobs 2024
354,800
Projected 2034
348,800
10-yr outlook
-2% · Decline
Employment change
-5,900
Entry education
See How to Become One
SOC code

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
34.3
contribution to AOI: 20.6
Automation Potential weight 10%
40.0
contribution to AOI: 4.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
45.0
contribution to AOI: 6.8
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
35.0
contribution to AOI: 5.2

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
44.7
mult 1.22x
Mid
36.6
mult 1.00x
Senior
30.0
mult 0.82x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

11 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Supporting t10

Monitor feed and speed of machines during operation

Modern CNC machines with sensors and AI monitoring systems can track feed rates, spindle speeds, tool wear, and vibration patterns autonomously, alerting to anomalies or making real-time adjustments with minimal human intervention.

BLS evidence: Machinists 'monitor the feed and speed of machines' as part of their typical duties.

75
automation
Core t3

Read and interpret technical drawings, blueprints, and CAD/CAM files

AI vision models and CAD interpreters can now extract dimensions, tolerances, and geometric features from technical drawings with high accuracy, though complex legacy blueprints with handwritten notes or unusual conventions may still require human verification.

BLS evidence: Both machinists and tool and die makers 'read detailed drawings or files, such as blueprints, sketches, and those for computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided manufacturing (CAM).'

72
automation
Important t4

Program CNC machines with cutting instructions and parameters

Modern CAM software with AI assistance can generate toolpaths and cutting parameters from CAD models, though machinists still provide critical judgment on material-specific feeds, speeds, and tool selection for optimal results and machine protection.

BLS evidence: The machinist 'programs instructions into the CNC machine to determine the cutting path, cutting speed, and feed rate' and tool and die makers 'often are trained to both operate CNC machines and write CNC programs.'

68
automation
Important t6

Verify completed products meet dimensional and quality requirements

AI-powered coordinate measuring machines and vision systems can verify many dimensional specifications autonomously, but complex geometries, surface finish assessment, and judgment calls on borderline measurements still benefit significantly from human expertise.

BLS evidence: Machinists 'verify that completed products meet requirements' and tool and die makers 'compute and verify dimensions, sizes, shapes, and tolerances of workpieces.'

58
automation
Important t9

Test completed tools and dies to ensure they meet specifications

While AI can analyze test data and measurements, the physical testing process requires operating the tool or die under production conditions, making iterative adjustments, and interpreting complex failure modes that demand hands-on troubleshooting and craft expertise.

BLS evidence: Tool and die makers 'test completed tools and dies to ensure that they meet specifications.'

35
automation
Supporting t11

Repair broken parts or fabricate replacement components for machinery

Repairing broken machinery parts requires diagnosing failures in situ, fabricating custom replacements on various machines, and fitting them into existing assemblies—tasks requiring physical access, improvisational machining, and mechanical troubleshooting in unpredictable conditions.

BLS evidence: Some machinists 'repair broken parts or make new parts that an industrial machinery mechanic discovers in a machine' by referring to engineering drawings.

20
automation
Important t5

Align, secure, and adjust cutting tools and workpieces

Requires precise physical manipulation, feel for proper workpiece seating, detection of subtle misalignments through tactile and visual feedback, and real-time adjustments in three-dimensional space that current robotics cannot reliably perform across varied part geometries.

BLS evidence: Machinists 'align, secure, and adjust cutting tools and workpieces' as part of their typical duties.

18
automation
Important t8

File, grind, and adjust parts to ensure proper fit

Manual filing and grinding for precision fit requires haptic sensitivity to remove material in micron increments, constant test-fitting, and adaptive technique based on material response—fine motor skills and judgment beyond current robotic capabilities.

BLS evidence: Tool and die makers 'file, grind, and adjust parts so that they fit together' and 'smooth and polish the surfaces of tools and dies.'

16
automation
Core t2

Turn, mill, drill, shape, and grind machine parts to specifications

Demands hands-on operation of machine tools with continuous physical adjustments, vibration sensing, and material-specific tactile judgment that AI-controlled robotics cannot yet match in typical job shop settings with varied parts and materials.

BLS evidence: Machinists 'turn, mill, drill, shape, and grind machine parts to specifications' using lathes, milling machines, grinders, and other machine tools to produce precision metal parts.

15
automation
Core t7

Construct precision tools, molds, and dies for manufacturing processes

Building precision tools, molds, and dies requires extensive hands-on machining, fitting, polishing, and iterative physical adjustments based on tactile feedback and decades of craft knowledge that AI-robotics systems cannot yet replicate in custom toolmaking environments.

BLS evidence: Tool and die makers 'construct precision tools or metal forms, called dies, that are used to cut, shape, and mold metal, plastics, and other materials.'

14
automation
Core t1

Set up, operate, and disassemble CNC and manual machine tools

Requires physical manipulation of heavy machinery, manual dexterity for setup and disassembly in variable shop environments, and real-time tactile feedback that current robotics cannot replicate at the precision and adaptability required.

BLS evidence: Machinists 'set up, operate, and disassemble manual, automatic, and computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools' and tool and die makers 'set up, operate, and disassemble conventional, manual, and CNC machine tools.'

12
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

🔒

Unlock with Jobpocalypse Pro

Career pivot paths, wage impact analysis, AI tool recommendations, and task heatmaps for every occupation. $9/month, cancel anytime.

See plans

or

Downloadable PDF for this occupation only. One-time payment, yours forever.

◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight

External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
40
karpathy 4/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
45
outlook: Decline
  • BLS projected outlook: Decline (-2%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
35
ed: See How to Become One
  • BLS typical entry-level education: See How to Become One
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Production

closest AOI neighbors in the same category