Grounds maintenance workers

AI Overlap Index
24.7 / 100
Insulated

Embodied skill, frontline presence, or deep institutional judgment. Most insulated.

SOC 37-3000 · Building And Grounds Cleaning

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$38,470/yr
Hourly
$18/hr
Jobs 2024
1,296,400
Projected 2034
1,342,300
10-yr outlook
+4% · As fast as average
Employment change
45,900
Entry education
See How to Become One
SOC code
37-3000

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
19.5
contribution to AOI: 11.7
Automation Potential weight 10%
10.0
contribution to AOI: 1.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
45.0
contribution to AOI: 6.8
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
35.0
contribution to AOI: 5.2

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
29.6
mult 1.20x
Mid
24.7
mult 1.00x
Senior
21.0
mult 0.85x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

10 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Important t8

Monitor and maintain plant health

AI vision systems can identify many plant diseases, pest damage, and stress indicators from images, potentially better than humans. However, the monitoring requires physical inspection across grounds, and maintenance decisions involve judgment about treatment timing, severity assessment, and cost-benefit tradeoffs that still benefit from human expertise, though AI assistance is significant.

BLS evidence: The duties section includes 'Monitor and maintain plant health' as a typical responsibility.

48
automation
Important t7

Water lawns, landscapes, and gardens

Automated irrigation systems can handle scheduled watering, and AI can optimize timing based on weather and soil sensors. However, manual watering for new plantings, spot treatment, and system adjustments still require human judgment and physical presence. The task is partially automatable but human oversight remains substantial.

BLS evidence: The duties section lists 'Water lawns, landscapes, and gardens' as a typical task, and landscaping workers 'water plants.'

35
automation
Supporting t10

Maintain and operate groundskeeping equipment

AI can assist with maintenance scheduling and diagnostics, but the physical work of cleaning, sharpening blades, changing oil, and repairing equipment requires manual dexterity in dealing with varied machinery. Some diagnostic AI tools exist, but the hands-on mechanical work remains firmly in human domain.

BLS evidence: Groundskeepers 'tend to groundskeeping equipment' and workers use various handheld tools and power equipment including lawnmowers, chain saws, and backhoes.

25
automation
Important t6

Apply pesticides, herbicides, or other treatments to plants or soil

AI can assist with identifying treatment needs and calculating application rates, but the physical application requires operating sprayers or spreaders across varied terrain, avoiding overspray on non-target areas, and adapting to wind and weather. Autonomous agricultural sprayers exist for open fields but not for complex landscape settings with mixed plantings.

BLS evidence: Pesticide handlers 'apply herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides to plants or soil to prevent or control weeds, insects, and diseases.'

22
automation
Supporting t9

Clear snow and debris from walkways and parking lots

Snow removal and debris clearing require operating equipment (plows, blowers, blowers) in dynamic conditions with obstacles like parked cars, curbs, and pedestrians. Autonomous snow removal exists only in very controlled settings; the variability of weather conditions, debris types, and safety considerations in active areas keeps this largely manual.

BLS evidence: Groundskeepers 'clear snow and debris from walkways and parking lots' as part of property upkeep duties.

20
automation
Core t1

Mow, edge, and fertilize lawns

Requires operating physical equipment (mowers, edgers) across varied terrain with obstacles like sprinklers, trees, and uneven ground. Current autonomous mowers handle only simple residential lawns; commercial grounds with landscaping features, slopes, and dynamic obstacles remain beyond reliable robotic capability.

BLS evidence: The duties section lists 'Mow, edge, and fertilize lawns' as a primary task that grounds maintenance workers typically do.

18
automation
Important t4

Weed and mulch landscape beds

Involves distinguishing desirable plants from weeds in varied conditions, physical removal requiring fine motor skills, and spreading mulch evenly around existing plants. While AI can identify weeds in images, the physical execution across irregular terrain with obstacles requires dexterity and adaptability current robots lack.

BLS evidence: The duties section explicitly lists 'Weed and mulch landscape beds' as a typical task.

15
automation
Core t2

Trim hedges, shrubs, and small trees

Demands fine motor control, aesthetic judgment about shape and proportion, and navigation around delicate plants and structures. Robotic pruning systems exist only in highly controlled agricultural settings; ornamental trimming in varied landscapes requires dexterity and real-time visual assessment AI+robotics cannot yet match.

BLS evidence: The duties section states workers 'Trim hedges, shrubs, and small trees' as a typical responsibility.

12
automation
Core t3

Plant flowers, trees, shrubs, and other plants

Requires physical manipulation of plants and soil in unpredictable outdoor environments, including digging appropriate holes, handling root balls of varying sizes, and ensuring proper depth and orientation. The combination of mobility, dexterity, and environmental adaptation is far beyond current robotic capabilities for non-factory settings.

BLS evidence: Landscaping workers 'plant flowers, shrubs, trees, and other vegetation to create new outdoor spaces or to upgrade existing ones.'

8
automation
Important t5

Remove dead, damaged, or unwanted trees or branches

Highly physical task requiring chainsaw operation, climbing or lift equipment use, assessment of fall zones, and safety judgment in unpredictable conditions. Involves significant risk management and physical skill in non-standardized environments that are completely beyond current AI+robotic systems.

BLS evidence: Tree trimmers and pruners 'cut away dead or excess branches from trees or shrubs to clear utility lines, roads, sidewalks, and other areas.'

5
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

🔒

Unlock with Jobpocalypse Pro

Career pivot paths, wage impact analysis, AI tool recommendations, and task heatmaps for every occupation. $9/month, cancel anytime.

See plans

or

Downloadable PDF for this occupation only. One-time payment, yours forever.

◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight

External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
10
karpathy 1/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
45
outlook: As fast as average
  • BLS projected outlook: As fast as average (4%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
35
ed: See How to Become One
  • BLS typical entry-level education: See How to Become One
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Building And Grounds Cleaning

closest AOI neighbors in the same category