Forest and conservation workers

AI Overlap Index
32.6 / 100
Selectively Exposed

Physical, social, or oversight-heavy work that AI augments rather than replaces.

SOC 45-4011 · Farming Fishing And Forestry

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$43,680/yr
Hourly
$21/hr
Jobs 2024
10,800
Projected 2034
10,300
10-yr outlook
-5% · Decline
Employment change
-500
Entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
SOC code
45-4011

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
22.2
contribution to AOI: 13.3
Automation Potential weight 10%
20.0
contribution to AOI: 2.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
45.0
contribution to AOI: 6.8
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
70.0
contribution to AOI: 10.5

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
39.1
mult 1.20x
Mid
32.6
mult 1.00x
Senior
27.7
mult 0.85x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

9 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Important t6

Count and measure trees during tree-measuring efforts

Tree counting and measuring can be substantially automated using LiDAR, drone imagery, and computer vision systems that already perform forest inventory tasks. AI can process imagery to identify, count, and measure tree dimensions, though human verification of results is still standard practice.

BLS evidence: The duties section explicitly lists 'Count and measure trees during tree-measuring efforts.'

68
automation
Supporting t9

Clean restrooms and public facilities at recreational sites

While cleaning tasks are becoming automatable in controlled indoor settings, forest recreation facilities are often rustic structures in remote locations with variable layouts, requiring navigation of outdoor terrain to reach them and handling of unpredictable cleaning scenarios that limit current robotic deployment.

BLS evidence: Government-employed workers 'may clean restrooms and other public facilities at recreational sites and campgrounds.'

28
automation
Important t7

Select or cut trees according to markings, sizes, types, or grades

While AI could identify trees meeting harvest criteria from imagery and markings, the physical act of felling trees with chainsaws in forests requires skilled operation in hazardous conditions, real-time safety assessment of fall direction and obstacles, and physical capabilities beyond current robotics.

BLS evidence: Workers 'Select or cut trees according to markings, sizes, types, or grades' as listed in their duties.

25
automation
Important t3

Protect plants from disease by applying insecticides, fungicides, or herbicides

While AI could assist in identifying treatment needs via image analysis, the physical application of chemicals in forest settings requires navigating rough terrain with spray equipment, making real-time wind and coverage judgments, and handling hazardous materials in unpredictable conditions.

BLS evidence: Workers 'Protect plants from disease by spraying trees or injecting vegetation with insecticides, fungicides, or herbicides.'

22
automation
Supporting t8

Maintain equipment to ensure proper operation

Equipment maintenance for chainsaws, vehicles, and forestry tools requires hands-on mechanical work in field conditions, diagnosing issues through physical inspection and sound, and performing repairs with manual dexterity in non-workshop settings that AI-robotics cannot yet replicate.

BLS evidence: Workers 'Maintain equipment to ensure that it operates properly' and must observe gauges and dials to ensure equipment works properly.

20
automation
Core t2

Identify and remove diseased or undesirable trees and plant life

Identifying diseased trees could leverage computer vision, but physical removal requires operating in unstructured forest environments with variable terrain, chainsaw operation, and safety judgment that current AI-robotics integration cannot match for this hazardous outdoor work.

BLS evidence: Workers 'Identify and remove diseased or undesirable plant life or trees' and use power saws to cut down diseased trees.

18
automation
Important t5

Clear brush and debris from trails, roadsides, and camping areas

Clearing brush and debris requires operating chainsaws, brush cutters, and other tools across uneven forest terrain with obstacles like roots and rocks, demanding physical dexterity and real-time navigation that current robotics cannot handle in these unstructured outdoor settings.

BLS evidence: Workers employed by government agencies 'clear brush and debris from trails, roadsides, and camping areas.'

15
automation
Core t1

Plant seedlings to reforest land

Planting seedlings requires physical presence in unpredictable outdoor terrain, fine motor manipulation of delicate plants and soil, and real-time judgment about placement depth and spacing that current robotics cannot reliably perform across varied forest conditions.

BLS evidence: The duties section lists 'Plant seedlings to reforest land' as a primary task, and the page notes workers use digging and planting tools to plant seedlings.

12
automation
Core t4

Help prevent and suppress forest fires

Wildfire suppression requires physical presence in extremely hazardous and rapidly changing environments, operating heavy equipment and hand tools in smoke and heat, making split-second safety decisions, and coordinating with teams—all far beyond current AI-robotics capabilities.

BLS evidence: Workers 'Help prevent and suppress forest fires' and may construct firebreaks to slow or stop fire progress.

8
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

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External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
20
karpathy 2/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
45
outlook: Decline
  • BLS projected outlook: Decline (-5%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
70
ed: High school diploma or equivalent
  • BLS typical entry-level education: High school diploma or equivalent
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Farming Fishing And Forestry

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