Agricultural workers

AI Overlap Index
32.5 / 100
Selectively Exposed

Physical, social, or oversight-heavy work that AI augments rather than replaces.

SOC · Farming Fishing And Forestry

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$35,980/yr
Hourly
$17/hr
Jobs 2024
812,600
Projected 2034
790,200
10-yr outlook
-3% · Decline
Employment change
-22,500
Entry education
See How to Become One
SOC code

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
29.2
contribution to AOI: 17.5
Automation Potential weight 10%
30.0
contribution to AOI: 3.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
45.0
contribution to AOI: 6.8
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
35.0
contribution to AOI: 5.2

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
39.0
mult 1.20x
Mid
32.5
mult 1.00x
Senior
27.6
mult 0.85x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

12 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Supporting t11

Keep detailed records on animals and crops

AI can automate data entry from sensors, generate reports, track inventory, and flag anomalies in crop yields or animal health metrics; most record-keeping can be handled by integrated farm management software with minimal human review of outputs.

BLS evidence: Animal breeders 'keep detailed records' noting 'an animal's health, size, and weight, as well as the amount and quality of its product' and farmworkers 'keep records on animals.'

75
automation
Important t8

Select and breed animals to produce offspring with desired traits

AI can analyze genetic data, predict breeding outcomes, and recommend optimal pairings based on trait databases, significantly augmenting decision-making, but physical breeding management, animal handling, and final selection judgment still require human oversight.

BLS evidence: Animal breeders 'select animals that will mate and produce offspring with desired traits and characteristics' such as chickens that lay more eggs or pigs that produce leaner meat.

55
automation
Important t5

Irrigate farm soil and maintain irrigation systems

Smart irrigation systems with AI-driven scheduling exist and can automate timing based on soil sensors and weather data, but physical maintenance of pipes, valves, and emitters in field conditions requires manual troubleshooting and repair skills.

BLS evidence: Workers 'irrigate farm soil and maintain ditches or pipes and pumps' as listed in the typical duties.

40
automation
Important t4

Apply fertilizer or pesticide solutions to control insects, fungi, and weeds

AI can optimize application patterns and timing via precision agriculture software, and some autonomous sprayers exist, but variable terrain, weather conditions, and the need for real-time adjustments to avoid drift or over-application still require substantial human operation.

BLS evidence: The Duties section states workers 'apply fertilizer or pesticide solutions to control insects, fungi, and weeds' and farmworkers 'apply fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides to crops.'

35
automation
Important t9

Prepare and maintain nursery and greenhouse beds for growing plants

Soil preparation and bed maintenance involve physical labor in semi-controlled environments; while some greenhouse automation exists for climate control, the manual tasks of tilling, amending soil, and arranging beds require dexterity and adaptation to specific layouts.

BLS evidence: Nursery and greenhouse workers 'prepare land or greenhouse beds for growing horticultural products' and 'plant, water, prune, weed, and spray the plants.'

30
automation
Supporting t12

Pack and load crops for shipment

Packing delicate crops requires careful handling to avoid bruising, sorting by quality, and adapting to variable product sizes; loading involves physical labor and spatial optimization that current robotics handle poorly for non-uniform agricultural products.

BLS evidence: Crop, nursery, and greenhouse farmworkers 'pack and load them for shipment' and nursery workers 'tie, wrap, and pack plants to fill orders.'

28
automation
Core t3

Feed livestock and clean and disinfect animal housing areas

Feeding can be partially automated, but cleaning and disinfecting animal housing requires navigating confined spaces with variable layouts, handling waste, and physical scrubbing tasks that robotics struggle with; animal welfare monitoring adds complexity.

BLS evidence: Workers 'feed livestock and clean and disinfect their cages, pens, and yards' and 'many workers clean and maintain animal housing areas every day.'

25
automation
Core t2

Operate and service farm machinery and equipment

Operating heavy farm machinery in variable field conditions requires spatial awareness, real-time obstacle avoidance, and physical manipulation that autonomous systems are still developing; servicing requires diagnostic skills and manual dexterity in non-standardized repair scenarios.

BLS evidence: Agricultural equipment operators 'use a variety of farm equipment to plow and sow seeds, as well as to maintain and harvest crops' and 'may adjust and make minor repairs to the machines and equipment.'

22
automation
Important t7

Herd and move livestock to pastures, scales, or enclosures

Herding livestock requires real-time response to unpredictable animal behavior across varied terrain, physical presence to guide and redirect animals, and situational judgment that autonomous systems and robotics cannot yet reliably handle.

BLS evidence: Workers 'herd livestock to pastures for grazing or to scales, trucks, or other enclosures' and 'may feed, herd, brand, weigh, and load animals.'

20
automation
Core t1

Plant, inspect, and harvest crops

Requires physical presence in unpredictable outdoor environments with fine motor skills for delicate handling of plants, variable terrain navigation, and real-time judgment about crop readiness that current robotics cannot reliably match at scale.

BLS evidence: The Duties section lists 'Plant, inspect, and harvest crops' as the first task agricultural workers typically do.

18
automation
Important t6

Examine animals to detect illnesses or injuries and administer vaccines

Requires hands-on physical examination of animals with unpredictable behavior, tactile assessment of symptoms, restraint during vaccination, and high-stakes medical judgment that cannot be delegated to AI without veterinary oversight and physical presence.

BLS evidence: Workers 'examine animals to detect symptoms of illnesses or injuries and administer vaccines to protect animals from diseases.'

15
automation
Supporting t10

Mark livestock ownership using brands, tags, or tattoos

Requires physical restraint of animals, precise application of brands or tags to moving targets, and manual dexterity with tools in unpredictable conditions; the physical and animal-handling aspects are far beyond current robotic capabilities.

BLS evidence: Workers 'use brands, tags, or tattoos to mark livestock ownership and grade' as listed in typical duties.

12
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

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External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
30
karpathy 3/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
45
outlook: Decline
  • BLS projected outlook: Decline (-3%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
35
ed: See How to Become One
  • BLS typical entry-level education: See How to Become One
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

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