Actuaries

AI Overlap Index
57.7 / 100
Mostly Exposed

Most of the workflow is automatable. Human judgment remains for exceptions, clients, or ambiguity.

SOC 15-2011 · Math

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median pay
$125,770/yr
Hourly
$60/hr
Jobs 2024
33,600
Projected 2034
40,900
10-yr outlook
+22% · Much faster than average
Employment change
7,300
Entry education
Bachelor's degree
SOC code
15-2011

Signal composition

how the 0-100 score is assembled

Task Automation Impact weight 60%
66.5
contribution to AOI: 39.9
Automation Potential weight 10%
80.0
contribution to AOI: 8.0
Market Pressure weight 15%
30.0
contribution to AOI: 4.5
Entry Barrier Erosion weight 15%
35.0
contribution to AOI: 5.2

By seniority

multiplicative adjustment from category curve

Entry
72.1
mult 1.25x
Mid
57.7
mult 1.00x
Senior
43.3
mult 0.75x

Entry-level roles carry the brunt because they concentrate the most automatable subset of tasks. Senior work is insulated by judgment, relationships, and accountability.

Task-level analysis

scored 0-100 for current-generation AI feasibility, weighted by BLS-stated importance

10 tasks · model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929
Core t3

Compile and analyze statistical data and other information using database and modeling software

This is a core AI strength—processing structured data, running statistical analyses, and building predictive models. AI can autonomously compile datasets, perform regression analyses, build mortality tables, and run Monte Carlo simulations with minimal human intervention beyond initial setup and batch review.

BLS evidence: The page lists 'compile and analyze statistical data and other information' as a typical duty and notes they 'use database software to compile information' and 'statistical and modeling software to forecast.'

82
automation
Important t5

Produce charts, tables, and reports that explain calculations and proposals

AI can generate professional charts, tables, and written reports from analytical outputs with high quality. Modern systems can transform complex calculations into clear visualizations and narrative explanations, requiring only light human review for tone and emphasis.

BLS evidence: The duties section states actuaries 'produce charts, tables, and reports that explain calculations and proposals.'

80
automation
Important t4

Calculate cash reserves needed based on existing policies and liabilities in case of payout or claims

Reserve calculations follow well-established actuarial formulas and regulatory frameworks that AI can execute reliably. Given policy data and liability schedules, AI can compute required reserves across multiple scenarios, though final sign-off for regulatory filings typically requires human review.

BLS evidence: Actuaries 'calculate cash reserves needed, based on existing policies and liabilities, in case of payout or claims' is listed as a typical duty.

75
automation
Core t1

Estimate the probability and likely economic cost of events such as death, sickness, accidents, or natural disasters

AI excels at probabilistic modeling and can process vast historical datasets to estimate event probabilities and economic costs. Modern LLMs combined with statistical models can perform these calculations with high accuracy, though complex novel scenarios or emerging risks may still benefit from human judgment on model assumptions.

BLS evidence: The BLS page states actuaries 'estimate the probability and likely economic cost of an event such as death, sickness, an accident, or a natural disaster' as a primary duty.

72
automation
Important t8

Develop pension and retirement benefit plans and evaluate their future funding adequacy

AI can model pension cash flows, run actuarial valuations, and test funding scenarios under various economic assumptions. The technical calculations are highly automatable, though plan design choices involving workforce strategy and benefit philosophy require human input.

BLS evidence: Pension actuaries 'design, test, and evaluate company pension plans to determine if funds available in the future will be enough to ensure payment of benefits.'

70
automation
Important t7

Set premiums for insurance policies ensuring they are profitable yet competitive

Premium setting involves quantitative optimization that AI handles well—balancing loss ratios, expense loads, and profit margins against competitive market data. However, strategic pricing decisions considering brand positioning, market entry/exit, and competitive response still require meaningful human judgment.

BLS evidence: The page states 'Most actuaries work for insurance companies, where they help design policies and determine the premiums that should be charged for each policy.'

68
automation
Supporting t10

Audit actuarial work of internal actuaries or provide consulting services to clients

AI can systematically check actuarial calculations against standards, flag anomalies, and verify methodology compliance. For routine audits of standard work, AI can handle most tasks autonomously. However, consulting on complex client-specific issues and providing strategic advice requires more human involvement.

BLS evidence: The page notes 'Many consulting actuaries audit the work of internal actuaries at insurance companies or handle actuarial duties for insurance companies.'

62
automation
Core t2

Design and test insurance policies, investments, and other business strategies to minimize risk and maximize profitability

AI can generate and test policy designs through simulation and optimization algorithms, but the strategic business judgment about market positioning, competitive dynamics, and organizational risk appetite requires substantial human oversight. AI assists powerfully but humans remain load-bearing for final design decisions.

BLS evidence: Actuaries 'design and test insurance policies, investments, and other business strategies to minimize risk and maximize profitability' according to the duties section.

58
automation
Important t9

Identify and assess enterprise risks including economic, financial, and geopolitical risks affecting company objectives

AI can process vast amounts of economic and financial data to identify risk patterns and correlations, but assessing novel enterprise risks—especially geopolitical and strategic risks—requires contextual judgment about business objectives and emerging threats that AI cannot fully replicate without substantial human oversight.

BLS evidence: Enterprise risk management actuaries 'identify risks, including economic, financial, and geopolitical risks that may affect a company's short-term or long-term objectives.'

55
automation
Important t6

Explain findings and proposals to company executives, government officials, shareholders, and clients

Explaining technical findings to diverse stakeholders requires reading the room, adapting to questions in real-time, building trust, and navigating organizational politics. While AI can prepare materials, the interpersonal and persuasive aspects of high-stakes presentations remain fundamentally human tasks.

BLS evidence: Actuaries must 'explain their findings and proposals to company executives, government officials, shareholders, and clients' according to the duties section.

35
automation

Task heatmap

automation score by task, sorted by weighted contribution

🔒

Unlock with Jobpocalypse Pro

Career pivot paths, wage impact analysis, AI tool recommendations, and task heatmaps for every occupation. $9/month, cancel anytime.

See plans

or

Downloadable PDF for this occupation only. One-time payment, yours forever.

◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight
◆ Premium insight

External signals and sources

category-level priors and BLS fields that feed the four non-task signals

Automation Potential
80
karpathy 8/10
  • Karpathy/BLS Digital AI Exposure (0-10 scale rescaled to 0-100)
Market Pressure
30
outlook: Much faster than average
  • BLS projected outlook: Much faster than average (22%)
  • Indeed demand signal (monthly refresh pending)
Entry Barrier Erosion
35
ed: Bachelor's degree
  • BLS typical entry-level education: Bachelor's degree
  • Credential trend signal (annual refresh)

Related in Math

closest AOI neighbors in the same category